Previous large-scale military exercises by Russia and Belarus ended with aggression against Ukraine. Should Poles be afraid of this year's exercises planned for September in Belarus?
Regardless of the fact that the war is ongoing, a special war operation (as Russia calls the aggression on Ukraine – ed.), together with President Putin, we have agreed that war is war, but we must look ahead and see other directions and possible theaters of war, says Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko, quoted by rp.pl. In an interview with the Russian station Mir, he announced that he had signed an order to carry out the Zapad-2025 (West-2025) maneuvers in the fall.
Belarusian and Russian troops will take part in the maneuvers. Belarusian and Russian independent media report that up to 100,000 soldiers may participate.
In 2021, after similar maneuvers, Russian troops did not withdraw from Belarusian territory, and already in December 2021, a decision was made to conduct unannounced exercises “Allied Resolve 2022”. During these maneuvers, the Russians invaded Ukraine from Belarus, among other places, and tried to take the shortest route to Kiev.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said back in February that Russia wants to prepare 15 divisions this year to “strengthen the Belarusian direction.” They will be in Belarus. We are talking about 100,000 to 150,000 people, the Ukrainian president claimed. They can move into Ukraine, as they did in 2022, but also into Poland or the Baltic states, he added.
We can also recall the Caucasus-2008 maneuvers, which were also a cover for aggression and mobilization of troops on the border with Georgia, says Wojciech Lorenz, coordinator of the “International Security” program at the Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM), for rp.pl. The Russians then used the military exercises to invade Georgia.
Rusłan Soszyn, author of the article in rp.pl, wonders whether Russia can create a second front in the current situation of the ongoing war in Ukraine.
The biggest threat is that the troops deployed by Russia will remain in Belarus on a permanent basis, according to PISM expert Wojciech Lorenz. The maneuvers will also be used to undermine NATO's credibility below the threshold of open armed aggression, the expert believes. As long as the Russians are tied up in Ukraine, it is difficult to assume that they will open another front and start full-scale aggression against NATO countries, he adds.